jerrywickey
April 27th, 2008, 10:22 AM
Admiral Adama tells us that the Colonials jumped from the Ragnar Anchorage Depot far past the "red line" into uncharted space. How big is the explored universe of the twelve colonies of Kobol? How much of the galaxy did the space fairing colonies have time to explore in the four thousand years since the thirteenth tribe of man left Kobol for Earth?
As you will see our galaxy alone is a very large place consisting of not millions of solar systems but hundreds of billions of solar systems. We only dare to contemplate the fact that there are hundreds of billions of galaxies in the visible universe.
Below is a picture representing the galaxy in which Earth resides, and a red circle representing the plausible extent of the Colonial exploration which represents Adama's "red line." Following that is the math justifying this representation.
http://www.geocities.com/jerrywickey/galaxbsg.JPG
Don't worry. I have a life.... almost. I am an electronics' engineer and woke one night to make myself a sandwich. I did the following calculations in my head and, since others might enjoy this information as much as I do, I spent an hour at work today checking the figures and writing them down. I know numbers, its my job, and would be happy to do my best to investigate any other questions members may have regarding the world of the intrepid Colonial refugees.
Earth is depicted in about its correct and actual location in our galaxy. The red circle represents the portion of the galaxy the 12 colonies of Kobol could plausibly have explored and mapped in detail in the 4000 years since the departing of the thirteenth tribe of man. This assumes that the thirteenth tribe left the company of their brethren shortly after Kobol became space fairing. The other twelve colonies appear to have stuck together.
If we believe the President, Kobol is in ancient ruins and its location known by the Cylons. I wonder what happened on Kobol that forced her thirteenth tribes to leave?
To make this map, we have three things which must be inferred.
1) How much of the galaxy could the children of Kobol have plausibly explored in 4000 years?
2) Where are the Colonials now in relationship to Earth?
3) Is the location of the 12 colonies likely even in the same galaxy as Earth?
Below is a representation of our galaxy with the real names of the galactic arms. According to the story, these names are influenced by our Kobol ancestors by means of tradition much like the names of the Greek gods.
The solar system in which Earth resides is about in the middle of the Orion-Cygnus spur of the Carina-Sagittarius arm. The name Sagittarius comes to us from the constellation Sagittarius which appears to reside in this galactic arm from the point of view of Earth. That part of the sky was named Sagittarius in ancient times, and might have been named by the people who came from the stars and knew that portion of the sky to be their original home.
Not just Sagittaron but all of the colonial planet systems might reside in that part of the galaxy. They are all close. The "red line" applies to all the colonies not just Sagittaron.
http://www.geocities.com/jerrywickey/MilkyWay.JPG
This is the first piece of the story which suggests the children of Kobol are near. Lets hope the BSG writers agree.
The second pieces of evidence is the vast distances of space travel which can be overcome by technology such as the FTL of the colonial fleet. When the admiral asked Gaeta if he could plot such a long jump, the response suggested the greatest difficulty was in ensuring the jump did not end inside a star or other equally disastrous location. If we assume the limit to FTL jumps is simply the ability to confidently observe the destination location for dangers and sometimes correctly and accurately locate planets into whose orbit the jumper is attempting, if such is the case, travel to another galaxy might could take thousands of jumps. Perhaps tens of thousands.
This information gives us a confident answer for question three and perhaps two as well. The twelve colonies who resided in relative close proximity to each other are likely in our own galaxy and perhaps in the Carina-Sagittarius arm of the galaxy, next door to Orion-Sygnus, Earth's location. The identified area of Carina-Sagittarius would be the more likely locations for star systems containing habitable water planets due to the density of stars and inter stellar radiation levels similar to Orion-Sygnus, and compatable with human life.
Lower interstellar dust levels of the arms further out, such as, Perseus might be less likely to provide the components of life. While the Crux-Scutum arm may experience higher interstellar radiation levels inconsistent with human life.
We can infer the probable extent of exploration with much greater confidants.
To make this inference we need to keep a few things in mind.
1) Many very interesting things in the galaxy are very far away, and would certainly have been singled out for intense observation. Scientific explorations would have been sent directly, but the maps and charts made of these areas would not have provided any usable galactic maps. These scientific expeditions would have covered only the area within a short distance from the objects of interest. Space which the explorers would have been able to observe in detail would certainly have been less than about ten light years.
These charts would in no way have provided a detailed map of the galaxy. Detailed maps of the space surrounding a hundred thousand sites of scientific interest comprising a thousand cubic light years each would be represented by dots smaller than pin pricks on the map of the galaxy above.
2) Detailed charts of all the star systems, dangers and other significant points of interest in any given area require merchant traffic on a regular basis.
3) To make a concerted effort to chart a region, a significant expenditure of effort would be required from the society making the inquiry.
To find out how much effort, we can not use current satellite technology. It is not analogous to the exploration which would have been required. We need to draw on our own shipping trade as an example instead. The population of Earth is 6 billion. How many sea going vessels do all societies on earth have which could... a) Sustain an ocean crossing? and b) Maintain a crew and scientific contingent for two months with food, fuel and other supplies?
These vessels would have to be substantial since their analogous vessels would be required to go to parts of the universe which are not yet unexplored. There would be no NAPA auto parts stores to pick up a replacement warp coil for one which failed. Vessels analogous to these on our world would be oil tankers, cargo ships and navy vessels the size of battle ships and aircraft carriers. How many ships of that substantial size can the economy of a population of 6 billion people maintain?
Well, lets see... Google "world inventory of ships" 'Seems there are about 3000 such ships in the world. War ships and other merchant ships might be suitable, but we must keep in mind that many ships are far too busy with their assigned activities to be recruited for missions of exploration alone. It would appear that the economy of a population of 6 billion might support 500 ships suitable for exploration.
If the twelve colonies had populated each of their own planets to its limit of 12 billion people each and the out planet colonies comprised another 10% of the total population than the total population of the 12 colonies might have been a maximum of 12 x 12,000,000,000 x 1.1 = 158,400,000,000 people, probably far less.
But lets make this red line as big as plausible and assume an economy driven by 160 billion people. By the analogy of our own world, that supports a maximum of 13,000 ships of exploration. Probably less. But let's error on the side of a larger area of exploration, not smaller.
If each vessel took 2 months to properly explore and chart a star system, it could chart six star systems per year.
If the population was constant for the entire 4000 years since Kobol became star fairing, which is possible but unlikely. It is more likely it started much smaller and grew to this population. But again to error on the larger side lets assume exploration proceeded at a constant rate of 13,000 ships exploring and charting 6 star systems each year for 4,000 years. This amounts to 312,000,000 star systems.
Wow! that's a lot of star systems. But there are about 400,000,000,000 star systems in the galaxy. 312 million would be less than one tenth of one percent of the galaxy's star systems.
One thousandths of the area of the picture of a typical galaxy above is a red circle about 1/16 of an inch in diameter. The circle shown is about 1/4 of an inch.
The plausible colonial's exploration of the universe to which Admiral Adama referred as the red line certainly falls well inside the circle depicted.
Jerry
As you will see our galaxy alone is a very large place consisting of not millions of solar systems but hundreds of billions of solar systems. We only dare to contemplate the fact that there are hundreds of billions of galaxies in the visible universe.
Below is a picture representing the galaxy in which Earth resides, and a red circle representing the plausible extent of the Colonial exploration which represents Adama's "red line." Following that is the math justifying this representation.
http://www.geocities.com/jerrywickey/galaxbsg.JPG
Don't worry. I have a life.... almost. I am an electronics' engineer and woke one night to make myself a sandwich. I did the following calculations in my head and, since others might enjoy this information as much as I do, I spent an hour at work today checking the figures and writing them down. I know numbers, its my job, and would be happy to do my best to investigate any other questions members may have regarding the world of the intrepid Colonial refugees.
Earth is depicted in about its correct and actual location in our galaxy. The red circle represents the portion of the galaxy the 12 colonies of Kobol could plausibly have explored and mapped in detail in the 4000 years since the departing of the thirteenth tribe of man. This assumes that the thirteenth tribe left the company of their brethren shortly after Kobol became space fairing. The other twelve colonies appear to have stuck together.
If we believe the President, Kobol is in ancient ruins and its location known by the Cylons. I wonder what happened on Kobol that forced her thirteenth tribes to leave?
To make this map, we have three things which must be inferred.
1) How much of the galaxy could the children of Kobol have plausibly explored in 4000 years?
2) Where are the Colonials now in relationship to Earth?
3) Is the location of the 12 colonies likely even in the same galaxy as Earth?
Below is a representation of our galaxy with the real names of the galactic arms. According to the story, these names are influenced by our Kobol ancestors by means of tradition much like the names of the Greek gods.
The solar system in which Earth resides is about in the middle of the Orion-Cygnus spur of the Carina-Sagittarius arm. The name Sagittarius comes to us from the constellation Sagittarius which appears to reside in this galactic arm from the point of view of Earth. That part of the sky was named Sagittarius in ancient times, and might have been named by the people who came from the stars and knew that portion of the sky to be their original home.
Not just Sagittaron but all of the colonial planet systems might reside in that part of the galaxy. They are all close. The "red line" applies to all the colonies not just Sagittaron.
http://www.geocities.com/jerrywickey/MilkyWay.JPG
This is the first piece of the story which suggests the children of Kobol are near. Lets hope the BSG writers agree.
The second pieces of evidence is the vast distances of space travel which can be overcome by technology such as the FTL of the colonial fleet. When the admiral asked Gaeta if he could plot such a long jump, the response suggested the greatest difficulty was in ensuring the jump did not end inside a star or other equally disastrous location. If we assume the limit to FTL jumps is simply the ability to confidently observe the destination location for dangers and sometimes correctly and accurately locate planets into whose orbit the jumper is attempting, if such is the case, travel to another galaxy might could take thousands of jumps. Perhaps tens of thousands.
This information gives us a confident answer for question three and perhaps two as well. The twelve colonies who resided in relative close proximity to each other are likely in our own galaxy and perhaps in the Carina-Sagittarius arm of the galaxy, next door to Orion-Sygnus, Earth's location. The identified area of Carina-Sagittarius would be the more likely locations for star systems containing habitable water planets due to the density of stars and inter stellar radiation levels similar to Orion-Sygnus, and compatable with human life.
Lower interstellar dust levels of the arms further out, such as, Perseus might be less likely to provide the components of life. While the Crux-Scutum arm may experience higher interstellar radiation levels inconsistent with human life.
We can infer the probable extent of exploration with much greater confidants.
To make this inference we need to keep a few things in mind.
1) Many very interesting things in the galaxy are very far away, and would certainly have been singled out for intense observation. Scientific explorations would have been sent directly, but the maps and charts made of these areas would not have provided any usable galactic maps. These scientific expeditions would have covered only the area within a short distance from the objects of interest. Space which the explorers would have been able to observe in detail would certainly have been less than about ten light years.
These charts would in no way have provided a detailed map of the galaxy. Detailed maps of the space surrounding a hundred thousand sites of scientific interest comprising a thousand cubic light years each would be represented by dots smaller than pin pricks on the map of the galaxy above.
2) Detailed charts of all the star systems, dangers and other significant points of interest in any given area require merchant traffic on a regular basis.
3) To make a concerted effort to chart a region, a significant expenditure of effort would be required from the society making the inquiry.
To find out how much effort, we can not use current satellite technology. It is not analogous to the exploration which would have been required. We need to draw on our own shipping trade as an example instead. The population of Earth is 6 billion. How many sea going vessels do all societies on earth have which could... a) Sustain an ocean crossing? and b) Maintain a crew and scientific contingent for two months with food, fuel and other supplies?
These vessels would have to be substantial since their analogous vessels would be required to go to parts of the universe which are not yet unexplored. There would be no NAPA auto parts stores to pick up a replacement warp coil for one which failed. Vessels analogous to these on our world would be oil tankers, cargo ships and navy vessels the size of battle ships and aircraft carriers. How many ships of that substantial size can the economy of a population of 6 billion people maintain?
Well, lets see... Google "world inventory of ships" 'Seems there are about 3000 such ships in the world. War ships and other merchant ships might be suitable, but we must keep in mind that many ships are far too busy with their assigned activities to be recruited for missions of exploration alone. It would appear that the economy of a population of 6 billion might support 500 ships suitable for exploration.
If the twelve colonies had populated each of their own planets to its limit of 12 billion people each and the out planet colonies comprised another 10% of the total population than the total population of the 12 colonies might have been a maximum of 12 x 12,000,000,000 x 1.1 = 158,400,000,000 people, probably far less.
But lets make this red line as big as plausible and assume an economy driven by 160 billion people. By the analogy of our own world, that supports a maximum of 13,000 ships of exploration. Probably less. But let's error on the side of a larger area of exploration, not smaller.
If each vessel took 2 months to properly explore and chart a star system, it could chart six star systems per year.
If the population was constant for the entire 4000 years since Kobol became star fairing, which is possible but unlikely. It is more likely it started much smaller and grew to this population. But again to error on the larger side lets assume exploration proceeded at a constant rate of 13,000 ships exploring and charting 6 star systems each year for 4,000 years. This amounts to 312,000,000 star systems.
Wow! that's a lot of star systems. But there are about 400,000,000,000 star systems in the galaxy. 312 million would be less than one tenth of one percent of the galaxy's star systems.
One thousandths of the area of the picture of a typical galaxy above is a red circle about 1/16 of an inch in diameter. The circle shown is about 1/4 of an inch.
The plausible colonial's exploration of the universe to which Admiral Adama referred as the red line certainly falls well inside the circle depicted.
Jerry